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Market Ethos
Market Ethos
Sep 15 - 20257 min readHas the Emerging Market Winter Thawed?
In a year when most markets seem to be going up, emerging markets have been a bit of a star. But are attractive valuations and rising fund flows enough to make up for tariff and concentration risks? ...
Market Ethos
Sep 08 - 20256 min readTSX Gains: Is There More?
Despite gloomy headlines for the Canadian economy, the TSX has had an impressive year so far. Has it hit a ceiling, or is there still room to climb?...
Market Ethos
Sep 02 - 202512 min readDesperately Seeking Diversification
Diversifying across asset classes remains prudent, but not all options are suited for the current environment. So what's the right diversifier in a year that's been far from plain vanilla for investors? ...
Market Ethos
Aug 25 - 20255 min readRisk-Free Is a Bit Riskier
Is the “risk-free” rate really risk-free? Government bonds have long been the benchmark for safety, but with credit spreads sitting near historic lows, it raises new questions about what investors are actually being compensated for....
Market Ethos
Aug 18 - 20256 min readIs Inflation Stirring?
Inflation has eased but may be stirring again. Lessons from the 1970s show it can resurge if not fully controlled. With tariffs, strong spending, and wage pressures, the risk of higher prices remains, even as rate cuts loom, raising questions about how markets will react later in 2025....
Market Ethos
Aug 11 - 20255 min readEarnings Deliver
Despite lowered expectations, Q2 earnings season ended on a strong note. But with forward estimates trending higher, are downside risks still at play?...
Market Ethos
Aug 05 - 202513 min readThe Great Rebalance
International and emerging market equities have seen notable gains so far this year. But are they trending strongly to rebalance portfolios away from U.S. stocks?...
Market Ethos
Jul 28 - 20257 min readFrom FANG to FOMO
Everyone loves a good story, and for investors, memes can serve as a nice shorthand. But what are the pitfalls of investing based on an acronym?...
Market Ethos
Jul 21 - 20258 min readWhat’s Your Ethos?
Market volatility can either expose or mask bad decision-making. Understanding your own behavioural biases can help you navigate uncertainty and make better investment decisions....
Market Ethos
Jul 14 - 20257 min readDividend Dilemma
With bond yields becoming rangebound, dividend-focused investing could start to entice investors. So how can you navigate this difficult space?...
Market Ethos
Jul 07 - 202514 min readFalse Crises
Markets have performed well during the first half of 2025, but this certainly masks a lot of volatility and uncertainty. Markets may have overreacted to initial shocks, but are they now underreacting to underlying economic threats?...
Market Ethos
Jun 30 - 20255 min readHigh Valuations, High Stakes
It's been an odd year for markets. Indices are up, economic forecasts are down, and uncertainty remains. So what do high valuations mean for investors going forward?...
Market Ethos
Jun 23 - 20256 min readTo Hedge or Not to Hedge
Currency hedging is an evergreen topic in Canadian investing. But accurately forecasting where a currency is going next can be rather challenging. So which trends do Canadians need to examine when considering hedged investment opportunities?...
Market Ethos
Jun 16 - 20256 min readSmall, Medium, or Large?
Portfolio managers often wonder what to do with small- or mid-cap stocks. High valuations make them attractive, but is there more to consider?...
Market Ethos
Jun 09 - 20255 min readTrimming America
Higher-than-expected labour numbers lifted the S&P 500 over 6,000 last week. But amid this newfound optimism, are markets underreacting to slowing economic data and earnings revisions?...
Market Ethos
Jun 02 - 202515 min readEvolving Diversification
In an era of policy uncertainty, market corrections are becoming more and more unique. Now more than ever, a more tactical approach to diversifiers is crucial for portfolio management....
Market Ethos
May 20 - 20255 min readWill the Consumer Wobble?
Based on daily credit and debit card transactions, U.S. consumer spending appears to be holding up nicely. But do underlying indicators tell a different story?...
Market Ethos
May 12 - 20256 min readInternational Exceptionalism?
With EAFE up about 13% so far in 2025, folks are talking international equities once again. Will this be yet another false signal, or is this cyclical dance finally changing tunes? ...
Market Ethos
May 05 - 202514 min readApril’s Wild Ride
The market is often driven by confidence, but policy uncertainty has induced a unique degree of market sensitivity. And while the S&P gets most of the headlines, there were a lot of moving parts during the recent bout of volatility....
Market Ethos
Apr 28 - 20255 min readThe Anatomy of a Correction
Periods of market weakness experience similar paths from correction to trough to recovery. But every correction is somewhat different, and the last few have been especially unique....
Market Ethos
Apr 21 - 20256 min readJekyll & Hyde
Policy uncertainty has led to some very large daily market swings. The good news is that there's always an option to pivot policy, to reverse or mitigate market damage....
Market Ethos
Apr 14 - 20256 min readNonsense and Sensibility
It's hard to find any sense over the past week and a half. There is, however, plenty of emotion. We’re seeing sentiment extremes and massive market swings....
Market Ethos
Apr 04 - 20258 min readPush It to the Limit
In financial markets, knowing when to hold steady amid chaos often separates success from failure. This past week has been the largest test of investors’ resolve since the depths of the pandemic....
Market Ethos
Mar 31 - 202511 min readHard or Soft Data?
The tariff situation continues to provoke uncertainty for markets. But will the soft data translate into hard impacts on the economy and earnings reports?...
Market Ethos
Mar 24 - 20256 min readWhat Are Advisors Asking?
Since 2010, the U.S. equity market has really dominated most others thanks to significantly higher earnings growth. So, is the strong start for internationally developed equity market performance a new trend or another head fake?...
Market Ethos
Mar 17 - 20257 min readThe Correction Is Here… Now What?
The S&P 500 closed in correction territory last Thursday, down 10% from its previous high. Policy uncertainty and flip-floppery have worn down market patience....
Market Ethos
Mar 10 - 20255 min readAnother Week, Another Tariff Update
So far, tariffs have been on, delayed, on again, softened for autos and agriculture, then all delayed again. It appears the market is becoming exhausted as well, or at least fed up....
Market Ethos
Mar 03 - 202512 min readThe “Trump Put”
Markets rejoiced following Trump's election win. But like many sugar highs, it just didn't last. So what's the best approach to what could be a volatile year?...
Market Ethos
Feb 24 - 20258 min readThe Prompt Paradox
Artificial intelligence (AI) has clearly been a dominant market, economic and workflow theme over the past few years. This ethos is not about how much compute we need and how we will power those data centres. It is about using AI....
Market Ethos
Feb 18 - 20257 min readOpportunistic Thinking
The art of investing is dealing with uncertainty. Successfully identifying when the odds are sufficiently tilted in your favour is what makes a successful investor....
Market Ethos
Feb 10 - 20256 min readDo Commodities Really Hedge Inflation?
With inflationary pressures back on the rise, inflation ‘proofing’ portfolios remains popular. It is an age-old market truism that real assets are a standout asset class for inflation protection. The only issue with old market sayings is that they are not always entirely true....
Market Ethos
Feb 03 - 202513 min readTariff Time
We know President Trump is rather fond of using tariffs. Perhaps of great importance is the impact on portfolios. Listen to what is being said or proposed and look for a potential market overreaction. This is our playbook....
Market Ethos
Jan 27 - 20255 min readHas Spring Sprung for M&A?
M&A activity has been rather low over the past few years given a number of factors from higher yields and confidence. However, there are signs of improvement as a number of factors are switching over from being headwinds to tailwinds. ...
Market Ethos
Jan 20 - 20255 min readNo More Trailers, It's Show Time
Trump 2.0 starts next week, and everyone is sure it will be an attention grabber if the trailers have been any indication. In this Ethos, we talk a bit about the likelihood of politically-driven volatility and dive into bond yields...
Market Ethos
Jan 13 - 20256 min readYield-to-Risk Ratio
Given most yield-providing allocations are also expected to provide some portfolio defence, we have shared a risk-adjusted yield framework to help consider different yield strategies for a portfolio....
Market Ethos
Jan 06 - 202510 min readReflecting on 2024 – Awesome Returns, Surprising Resilience
In this month’s strategy edition, we provide a year-in-review to help put last year into perspective. ...
Market Ethos
May 13 - 20247 min readIs It Time for Emerging Markets?
The normal narrative for encouraging investors to look at emerging markets typically goes like this: The valuations are cheap, the demographics/rising incomes are supportive of growth, and they offer diversification. ...
Market Ethos
May 06 - 202412 min readLots of Bulls and Bears
Take your pick. There is no shortage of both good and bad news floating about the financial markets. To be fair, this is always the case. ...
Market Ethos
Apr 29 - 20246 min readEarnings Optimism
There are three things you should rarely ever bet against: the Leaf’s opposing team in the playoffs, the American consumer’s ability to spend, and corporate profits. As we are now about halfway through U.S. earnings season, once again, positive surprises remain the norm; 81% have beaten....
Market Ethos
Apr 22 - 20246 min readEnergy Stars Align
The oil market has been interesting lately and, to the surprise of many, has been the biggest silent outperformer this year....
Market Ethos
Apr 15 - 20245 min readValue in the Canadian Dollar
The weakness in the Canadian dollar is pretty easy to explain. U.S. inflation has ticked higher, as has the American economic data. ...
Market Ethos
Apr 08 - 20245 min readDividend Depression
Dividend investing is supposed to be easy. Find quality companies with long track records of paying or even increasing their dividends, buy some shares, collect your regular tax-advantaged payments over time and watch the share price go higher....
Market Ethos
Apr 01 - 202414 min readWHY?
Financial literacy is predicated on asking the question, “Why?” Why does this market keep moving higher? Why is inflation fading so slowly? Why are home prices high given low affordability?...
Market Ethos
Mar 25 - 20246 min readIPOs – Where Art Thou?
There is no denying the equity markets are in the throws of a strong advance. The S&P is up 21% over the past six months, Europe is up 19%, and Japan is up 25%. ...
Market Ethos
Mar 18 - 20246 min readInflation - Not Going Quietly Into the Night
Now with 2024 well underway and the equity market up smartly, should we be concerned that inflation doesn’t seem to be going quietly into the night?...
Market Ethos
Mar 11 - 20246 min readWhat’s Up With Gold?
If you have ever held gold within your portfolio, it is a safe assumption that you found the experience frustrating. Sometimes, the stars align for gold, such as positive retail/bank flows, falling real yields, a weaker US dollar, and war breaking out somewhere. ...
Market Ethos
Mar 04 - 202413 min readA Bubbly World
The history of markets is filled with examples of bubbles, creating great wealth on the way up and subsequently destroying much wealth on the way back down. ...
Market Ethos
Feb 26 - 20247 min readCash vs GICs vs Bonds
So far this year, investors have piled into cash, added into bonds and sucked money out of equities....
Market Ethos
Feb 20 - 20246 min readNobody Controls Risk in an Index
The steady redemptions over the years from active managers and reallocation to passive have created more steady selling pressure in strategies that focus on value or fundamentals....
Market Ethos
Feb 12 - 20245 min readAmerican Exceptionalism
Over the past month or so, the economic data from America has certainly turned up somewhat. A strong Q4 GDP print of 3.1%, two back-to-back months of 300k+ job gains, and even manufacturing activity has ticked higher....
Market Ethos
Jan 29 - 20245 min readDo Valuations Matter?
One could certainly question the importance of valuations in this market. If you were bold enough to buy Nvidia a year ago, ignoring the 60x price-to-earnings (forward earnings), you made money....
Market Ethos
Jan 22 - 20248 min readMoody Market
Markets certainly move around a lot. Last summer, the stock market rallied over a number of months into the end of July before going on a three-month decline due to rising bond yields. ...
Market Ethos
Jan 15 - 20246 min readMaybe It Was Transitory After All
The illusion of causality is a behavioural bias in which we believe there is a cause-and-effect relationship at work which just isn’t there....
Market Ethos
Jan 08 - 20247 min read60/40: The Reports of My Death Are Greatly Exaggerated
It was not that long ago, perhaps about a year at its peak frequency, that you couldn’t go far without coming across another report extolling the death of the plain vanilla 60/40 portfolio allocation. ...
Market Ethos
Jan 02 - 202410 min read2023 Year in Review
Let’s just say it: despite all the headlines, twists and surprises along the way, 2023 was a great year for investors. The S&P 500 was the star at +23% (all returns are total returns in CAD). ...
Market Ethos
Dec 18 - 20233 min readTop 10 Ethos of 2023
In keeping with our annual tradition, below are our favourite Market Ethos publications of the past year. In chronological order....
Market Ethos
Dec 11 - 20236 min readIs the “Buy the Dip” Era Over?
2023 may not be over yet, but with only a few weeks left, it appears to have been a great year to be an investor. Global equities are up about 15%, led by the S&P and Europe at +20%, followed by Japan at +13% and the TSX at +7%....
Market Ethos
Dec 04 - 202331 min read2024 Outlook – The Great Reset Final Act
Over the past couple of years, we have been enduring a great reset following a decade-long period that was characterized by disinflation, lower economic growth, low yields and lots of monetary stimulus. ...
Market Ethos
Nov 27 - 20236 min readJapan Still Rising
Have you ever noticed when a manager or advisor or investor talks about their portfolio, they tend to focus much more on what has worked out well and often gloss over detractors?...
Market Ethos
Nov 20 - 20236 min readInflation Victory Lap
Grab that bottle of Veuve and give your sabrage skills a test; inflation is over, and it's time to party. Well, that is the way the equity markets have rejoiced on a handful of data points supporting the view that inflation risk is quickly fading. ...
Market Ethos
Nov 06 - 202312 min readYear-End Rally?
2022 was certainly a rather painful year for investing. There were more central bank rate hikes than any of us would care to count, yields moved from ultra lows to the highest in a few decades, and markets took it on the chin. ...
Market Ethos
Oct 30 - 20235 min readEarnings Hits and Misses
We are about halfway through the U.S. earnings season, with 245 of the S&P 500 having already reported. Earnings are rather backward-looking, kind of like GDP reports, since the quarter started in July and ended in September....
Market Ethos
Oct 23 - 20237 min readThe Thematic Riddle
Okay, we will start this week with full acknowledgement that this edition is a bit self-serving; it’s about thematic investing, and yes, we launched a thematic-focused strategy last week....
Market Ethos
Oct 16 - 20236 min readSometimes, Even a Free Lunch Can Taste Bad
Harry Markowitz, the father of modern portfolio construction, is often quoted as saying, “Diversification is the only free lunch” in investing....
Market Ethos
Oct 10 - 20235 min readCrowding Out Risk
Now, that was a blockbuster jobs report. The U.S. economy added 336k jobs in September, based on the nonfarm payroll report, which was much stronger than expected. ...
Market Ethos
Mar 16 - 20237 min readIt Is 2023, Not 2008
It’s fair to say that investors remember the last bear market the best; the one before that is a hazy memory, and if they have been investing long enough, the one before that is almost forgotten. ...
Market Ethos
Mar 13 - 20237 min readThinking Long-Term Returns
It is fair to say we spend a good portion of our time researching, thinking and talking about what will happen this week, next week, next month, and next quarter. Will inflation come back down? Is there a recession coming, and if so, how will it look? How could capital markets react? ...
Market Ethos
Jan 23 - 20237 min readBeep Beep
Markets, like Wile E., can be so singularly focused on one thing (inflation) that they can for better or worse be oblivious to approaching danger (recession)....
Market Ethos
Jan 16 - 20236 min readHockey & Dividends
Another thing Canadians love is dividends or, more aptly, dividend-paying companies. So are we also really good at producing some of the greatest dividend-paying companies?...
Market Ethos
Jan 09 - 20236 min readA Job-Filled Recession?
Our team absorbs a lot of different economic/market views and opinions from a lot of different sources. We also do a ton of our own analysis. To put it bluntly, 2023 is lining up to be one confusing year....
Market Ethos
Op-Ed
Jan 04 - 202319 min readPurpose 2023 Outlook – Bear Market End Game
The current bear market began roughly the same time the ball in Time Square dropped to usher in 2022, which means with the more recent ball drop this bear celebrated its one-year anniversary. There is no blueprint for bear markets. Sometimes they are short (2020), sometimes long (2000-03)....
Market Ethos
Dec 19 - 20226 min readOur Top 10 Market Ethos of 2022
It's that time of year again when market activity subsides, and many investors enjoy their holidays. We have authored 39 Market Ethos publications this year, not including the Investor Strategy editions that come out at the start of every month....
Market Ethos
Dec 12 - 20226 min readData, Shmata
Big week next week, with the US inflation number released on Tuesday. Expectations are for YoY CPI to continue to drift lower, falling from 7.7% in October to 7.3% in November. ...
Market Ethos
Sep 15 - 20257 min read